Takaichi sparks powerful new push on Russia-held islands after 7-year freeze

A Promise Triggering Intense Debate

Prime Minister Takaichi recently stated that she hopes to restart visits by elderly Japanese who were displaced from the islands decades ago. These visits, which once allowed former residents to travel to their ancestral homes and grave sites, were halted as Japan-Russia tensions deepened after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

However, analysts quickly warned that Takaichi sparks powerful disagreements because the political climate is more hostile than ever. Japan openly supports Ukraine, while Russia has tightened its strategic cooperation with China. These developments have frozen diplomatic channels between Tokyo and Moscow, leaving little room for humanitarian exchanges.

James Brown, an international relations professor at Temple University’s Tokyo campus, was blunt in his assessment:

“Right now, there is no chance of these visits being resumed.”

He added that even if the Ukraine war ends someday, it may take years before Japan-Russia relations improve enough to rebuild trust. This is a key reason why Takaichi sparks powerful reactions — the promise sounds hopeful, but reality remains difficult.

Russia and China Respond Strongly

The tension surrounding the islands dispute became even clearer after a recent meeting in Moscow between Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Both officials criticized Japan, accusing Tokyo of reviving “militaristic ambitions.”

Shoigu claimed Japan was again becoming aggressive and warned of a “militaristic hydra rearing its head.” In return, Russia reaffirmed its support for China’s position on Taiwan.

This rhetoric shows why Takaichi sparks powerful diplomatic friction: any statement from Tokyo on the islands immediately triggers strong reactions from Moscow and Beijing.

Andrei Lankov, a professor of international relations at Kookmin University in Seoul, said:

“Putin’s supporters will see Takaichi’s remarks as an attempt to reclaim Russian territory, even if the idea is completely unrealistic.”

He explained that Russian nationalists view Takaichi as openly anti-Russian, and her new pledge will only harden Moscow’s stance. This is yet another moment where Takaichi sparks powerful criticism abroad.

The Islands at the Heart of an 80-Year Dispute

The four contested islands — Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan, and the Habomai islets — lie between Japan’s Hokkaido and Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. The Soviet Union seized them at the end of World War II, and since then the two nations have never signed a peace treaty.

For decades, the dispute has been a sensitive issue in Japanese politics. Even during the leadership of the late Shinzo Abe, who tried to build a personal rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin, negotiations stalled.

Today, after Japan has joined Western sanctions and voiced full support for Ukraine, ties with Russia have deteriorated dramatically. This is why Takaichi sparks powerful discussions: her statement touches one of the most politically charged topics in modern Japanese diplomacy.

Takaichi’s Humanitarian Motivation

Despite the political complications, Prime Minister Takaichi appears motivated by a humanitarian concern. Fewer than 5,000 first-generation residents of the disputed islands are still alive, and most are now in their nineties. They have spent nearly their entire lives away from their birthplace, yet many still wish to visit their ancestral graves one last time.

According to Professor Brown:

“Each Japanese prime minister receives emotional appeals from displaced residents. They cannot ignore these pleas.”

In this sense, Takaichi sparks powerful sympathy among many Japanese voters. The humanitarian element is real and deeply meaningful to the elderly survivors and their families.

But analysts also stress that Takaichi likely views this issue more as a symbolic gesture rather than a practical policy goal. Given the state of global politics — rising tensions with China, unpredictable behavior from North Korea, and worsening ties with Russia — the islands dispute sits low on Japan’s priority list.

Japan’s Larger Strategic Challenges

Prime Minister Takaichi is currently managing several major foreign policy concerns:

• A growing Chinese military presence in the East China Sea

• Russia’s partnership with China

• North Korea’s missile launches

• Domestic pressure to strengthen Japan’s defense posture

With these challenges taking center stage, the islands dispute is unlikely to receive significant political attention.

Professor Brown summarizes this reality well:

“It is sad, but this issue will remain an afterthought, at least until the Ukraine conflict is over.”

This is another moment where Takaichi sparks powerful debate — not because the policy is flawed, but because the timing is incredibly complicated.

• Read More: Japan–Russia Relations Deep Dive

• Related Analysis: China-Russia Strategic Partnership

Conclusion: Hope Meets Geopolitical Reality

In the end, Takaichi’s promise has reawakened a sensitive national question. On one side, Takaichi sparks powerful hope for elderly citizens longing to reconnect with their past. On the other, Takaichi sparks powerful skepticism among analysts who believe the political climate makes humanitarian visits nearly impossible right now.

Japan’s renewed interest in the islands dispute arrives at a moment when Tokyo’s diplomatic relations with Russia are deeply strained. With Russia focused on Ukraine and forging closer ties with China, and Japan strengthening its alignment with the West, the chances of resuming humanitarian exchanges remain slim.

For now, Takaichi sparks powerful conversation — but practical progress will likely have to wait until the global landscape shifts.